Perfect for school books, shoes, practice clothesHow many of us football fans start looking at the odds on a Thursday or Friday to place their wagers? Most of us look forward to Sunday as the day to watch the games and see how we are doing with our picks. We usually end up disappointed and start again the next week on Thursday or Friday.
What about starting on Tuesday? The most success I have had has been because I started on Tuesday and finished my picks by Thursday or Friday!
Injuries and the associated lists that come out are not a huge factor in the outcome of these games as some may lead you to believe. Unless a major player is down and I mean major like a Quarterback, Linebacker or Running back or unless there is just a complete rash of injuries on one team it really does not have that much of an effect. You already know this information on Tuesday, most of the time looking at the IL is just muddying up the windows. Avoid using the lists to determine the outcome, unless it's an impact player.
The four things I look for when making my picks are as follows:
Coaching is one of the most important factors I look at. We all know the NFL is two games, first half and second half. Most of the good coaches can be defined by how they motivate and adjust to the games in the second half. This comparison is probable the easiest to make and you can usually define who has the edge.
Defenses can also easily be compared, you can always compare pass and run defenses against each other and see how a defenses fits to the opposition's offence, but you can always tell who has the edge defensively.
Quarterbacks again a comparison, who can march the ball the length of the field, controlled offense and who throws the least amount of interceptions are things that will influence my decisions. A QB efficiency rating may be fun to look at and argue over but means little on Sunday, unless, it's Brady, Peyton or Romo stacking there numbers.
Last 3 Games have to be looked at in a lot of different ways. Which teams have covered the spread over the last three and are capable of covering again. Look at points scored both for and against in the last three games. Do not get caught up in seasonal stats, these are always misleading, and some very weak teams start strong and fade while some strong teams start slow and build.
Quick Notes:
Look for hot and cold players and what influence that may have on a game, much like the Iinjury List, but never let it be the determining factor, it's just to iffy.
The majority of weight I put on selecting my picks is Coaching, Quarterbacks and Defense, two of three will usually determine the winner, if you do your homework the spread looks a lot easier to predict.
Good Luck!
Barry Scott is a self taught sports handicapper who has enjoyed moderate success in Pro Football, Hockey and Basketball. You can visit his web site at http://myweb.ecomplanet.com/BTS3942 You can email me at wiserguy2001@yahoo.com
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