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With 32 teams making selections, there's bound to be a surprise or two or more, and that just heightens the appeal. We're going to predict some shockers for this year's draft ... we're not saying they will happen, but hey, they could.
SHOCKER NO. 1: No team is more unpredictable than the Patriots. Master guru Bill Belichick always has some tricks up his sleeve.
Last year, he surprised by taking Tennessee linebacker Jerrod Mayo at No. 10. He was rewarded by seeing Mayo voted NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.
This year, he holds a trump card with his in-demand backup quarterback Matt Cassel. We think he'll send Cassel to Tampa Bay for its top pick, No. 19.
Why Tampa? Because Tampa is bringing in a new GM and new coach, and the new regime will want to make a splash. Also, previous coach Jon Gruden was fired in part for not developing a young quarterback.
That will give the Pats No. 19 and No. 23 ... but wait. By the time they select, the top four linebackers will probably be gone (Ohio State's James Laurinaitis, USC's Rey Maualuga, Wake Forest's Aaron Curry and Virginia's Clint Sintim), the top cornerback (Ohio State's Michael Jenkins) and the top two defensive linemen (Boston College's B.J. Raji and Mississippi's Peria Jerry).
Of; course, not all of them could be gone but Belichick can't take that chance, so he'll trade up with his two picks for San Francisco's at No. 10. Remember, these two teams have traded before and it helped both ... the Pats ended up with Mayo and the 49ers with good young left tackle Joe Staley. The 49ers have a multiplicity of needs, so they'll be glad to get two for one. Belichick would rather have one terrific player than two OK-to-good ones.
The Pats could take Maualuga or Jenkins for more obvious needs and do just fine. But we think Belichick's ultimate shocker will be Jerry, a powerful, explosive DT. New England's defensive line, always the strength of the team, suddenly is getting old ... Richard Seymour and Jarvis Green will be 30 next season, Vincent Wilfolk and Ty Warren 28. Belichick will think ahead and groom a top young talent in there.
SHOCKER NO. 2: The top quarterback prospect, Matthew Stafford of Georgia, will watch unhappily as he plummets.
Stafford looks a bit mechanical and robotic. Size matters in the NFL and Stafford, supposedly 6-foot-3, is shorter than this past season's top two rookie QBs, Matt Ryan of Atlanta (6-4) and Joe Flacco of Baltimore (6-6).
But also, agents for highly picked QBs demand not only the sun and the moon but the entire universe. A career-killing holdout frequently ensues. So why sign yourself up a hassle when he's far from a sure thing?
We think Stafford will fall to No. 17 and the Jets. He's worth No. 17 money, not top money.
SHOCKER NO. 3: The other touted QB prospect, USC's Mark Sanchez, dismayed his college coach, Pete Carroll, by coming out early. Carroll didn't think he was ready.
We don't, either. He isn't as good as one of his predecessors, Matt Leinart, who has failed to impress in three seasons with Arizona.
QB-hungry Minnesota, at No. 22, would at first glance seem a likely destination for Sanchez. But wait. Last year (in the fifth round!) the Vikings drafted John David Booty, who was the other predecessor at USC. So they already have the guy Sanchez couldn't beat out in college.
We think Sanchez will fall to the second or third round.
SHOCKER NO. 4: Ohio State running back Beanie Wells will be the biggest slider. He has top talent but unfortunately, he has suffered frequent injuries his past two seasons; wouldn't you know it, he missed most of the second half against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl with a concussion.
This isn't a criticism of Wells ... it just seems he's unlucky. But teams can't afford the risk of shelling out huge bucks to a guy who has a track record of not seeing the field. Georgia's Knowshon Moreno is just as good as Wells and will be the first running back selected.
SHOCKER NO. 5: Draftniks ... the need-a-life guys who immerse themselves in draft scenarios to the point of obsession ... like to show how smart they are by having a team or two pick a tight end in the first round.
That's a loser's game. Tight end has become a low-impact part of the offense for almost all teams. They can wait until round 2 or 3 if they need one. We don't think anyone will take a tight end in round 1 this year ... if a team does so, it's nuts.
SHOCKER NO. 6: OK, so if the Detroit Lions with the overall top pick don't take a QB ... and why should they since Stafford wouldn't be any better than incumbent Daunte Culpepper ... what will they do?
Well, they won't ... or shouldn't ... take an offensive tackle, either. They already have good-enough veteran Jeff Backus at left tackle and last year they unwisely listened to the draftniks and picked Gosder Cherilus at right tackle ... he turned out to be the rookie flop of the year.
The Lions' defense is the worst in the league. That's what their priority should be. We think they will opt for huge (6-7, 265) DE Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech if he tests out sensationally well at the NFL Combine, and he probably will, to obtain the difference-maker they need. If not, they should choose Laurinaitis, who has been slipping in most projections but would provide the speed, smarts, hitting power and rock-intensity leadership they need.
And remember, you read it here first. If it doesn't happen, forget you read it here first.
By Gerry Storch
Gerry Storch is editor and administrator of http://www.ourblook.com, a political discussion/media analysis website that fills the gap between a blog and a book. In his journalism days, he was sports editor of Gannett News Service.
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